Nonstationarity and randomization in the Reed-Frost epidemic model

Nonstationarity and Randomization in the Reed–frost Epidemic Model

The purpose of this paper is to determine the exact distribution of the final size of an epidemic for a wide class of models of susceptible–infective–removed type. First, a nonstationary version of the classical Reed–Frost model is constructed that allows us to incorporate, in particular, random levels of resistance to infection in the susceptibles. Then, a randomized version of this nonstation...

Approximating the Reed – Frost epidemic process †

The paper is concerned with refining two well known approximations to the Reed–Frost epidemic process. The first is the branching process approximation in the early stages of the epidemic; we extend its range of validity, and sharpen the estimates of the error incurred. The second is the normal approximation to the distribution of the final size of a large epidemic, which we complement with a d...

A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading.

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-...

Perfect simulation for Reed-Frost epidemic models

A commentary on the mechanical analogue to the Reed-Frost epidemic model.

Recent years have witnessed a considerable increase in the development and use of mathematical and computer-based models in infectious disease epidemiology. As a measure of this increase, Bailey (1) finds that the literature in this field has grown at a greater-than-exponential rate over the past two decades/ilthough one may suspect that some of the published models have greater value as exerci...